Predictions
17351
Fixtures
18841
Bankroll
1095.86
Bets (won/lost/pending)
14/18/8
Bet / No Bet
1170/16181
ROI: 8.3% · total staked 1152.98 · P&L 95.86
SoccerSTATS history last refreshed
2026-09-19T03:14:42.795134+00:00
Where the model has skill details →
Out-of-sample only: each league group trained on matches before a cutoff and scored on matches after it. "Best edge" is how far the strongest market beats simply always calling the most common outcome.
| League group | Test matches | Markets beating baseline | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 770 | 1/3 | +8.4pp (Match result) |
| Iberia East | 884 | 2/3 | +7.3pp (Match result) |
| Low Countries | 959 | 1/3 | +7.0pp (Match result) |
| Central | 1187 | 2/3 | +5.9pp (Match result) |
| Italy | 1320 | 1/3 | +5.5pp (Match result) |
| Scotland | 399 | 1/3 | +4.5pp (Match result) |
| France | 1148 | 3/3 | +3.8pp (Match result) |
| Finland | 576 | 1/3 | +3.6pp (Match result) |
| Romania | 862 | 2/3 | +3.3pp (Over / Under 2.5 goals) |
| Ireland | 544 | 1/3 | +3.2pp (Match result) |
| Japan | 938 | 2/3 | +3.0pp (Match result) |
| China | 757 | 1/3 | +3.0pp (Match result) |
| Germany | 1204 | 1/3 | +2.8pp (Match result) |
| Sweden | 808 | 2/3 | +2.1pp (Match result) |
| Spain | 1523 | 1/3 | +2.0pp (Match result) |
| England | 2000 | 1/3 | +0.8pp (Match result) |
| Poland | 844 | 1/3 | +0.7pp (Match result) |
| South America | 2000 | 1/3 | +0.5pp (Match result) |
| Mexico | 955 | 1/3 | +0.4pp (Match result) |
| Switzerland | 545 | 1/3 | +0.4pp (Match result) |
| Norway | 978 | 1/3 | +0.3pp (Match result) |
| Usa | 1535 | 1/3 | +0.2pp (Both teams to score) |
| Denmark | 704 | 0/3 | -0.2pp (Both teams to score) |
Beating this baseline is a low bar — far lower than beating Betway's price,
which is what decides whether a bet makes money. Nothing here has been
compared against the market yet; run --run-once market once
settled fixtures have stored prices.